Browsing all articles from August, 2012
Aug
31

Oil Rose to $113 per barrel, Heads for 2nd Monthly Addition

Oil augmented to $113 per barrel on Friday, bearing for a second monthly addition supported by investor expectation of further monetary easing that could encourage economic growth and support oil demand, and worries regarding supplies.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke may admit the US central bank is aggressively considering an additional round of monetary easing in his Jackson Hole speech today.

Brent crude was climbed up 57 cents to $113.22 per barrel by 0947 GMT, following declining to a session low of $112.36 per barrel. US crude increased 38 cents to $95.00 per barrel.

Natalie Rampono, commodity strategist at ANZ stated that the oil is most likely going to trade sideways on Friday until the Bernanke speech, which will probably offer further of a downside risk as the markets have previously priced in a policy easing response.

The US dollar lost its strength in advance of the speech by the Fed chairman, who could frustrate markets if he stops short of indicating a further bond buying program is looming, a conclusion which many analysts articulated is a strong likelihood.

In addition of stimulus expectations, a plunge in supply from the North Sea source of the crude which supports the Brent contract, due to oilfield upholding as well as hostility in Syria and stress over Iran’s nuclear program also lent support.

Tony Machacek, a broker at Jefferies Bache said that essentially the market could come down; however there is this general fear factor about Syria, Iran, Israel and hurricanes.

Furthermore, the 17-nations shared currency has directed to stabilize, which has maybe assist oil creep higher. Short covering earlier than the weekend could also keeps the market floating.

Oil for October delivery climbed 39 cents to $95.01 per barrel during the Friday’s trading session.

Natural gas for October delivery increased 2 cents to $2.77 per British thermal units. September gasoline knocks down 1 cent to $3.08 per gallon.

Aug
31

Precious Gold Prices flattened, Ahead of Bernanke Speech

Precious gold prices flattened on Friday ahead of a key speech from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke in Jackson Hole at Wyoming, on which he is expected to provide hints as to the probability of an additional round of US monetary stimulus.

Bernanke’s speech at 1400 GMT will be strongly watched for symbols that the Fed is considering an additional looming round of bullion friendly moves to increase growth such as money printing to buy bonds, or quantitative easing.

Gold prices climbed to 4-1/2 month highs earlier this week on talk of further QE. They have since settled back as investors await Bernanke’s speech and may be susceptible to an alteration if it disappoints.

Tobias Merath, an analyst at Credit Suisse said that there is definitely something previously priced in for Jackson Hole, and there is a fragment of dissatisfaction potential here.

He further added that the prospect for further monetary easing would have to be satisfied to break higher here, for the time being, we have a bit of a cautious advance to the precious metal’s market.

We still believe the base case is for additional sideways trading, and that would only change if investment interest increased to the level that we are able to break that is technical resistance at $1,700.

Spot gold was added 0.1 percent at $1,657.76 per ounce at 0955 GMT, as US gold futures for December delivery were climbed $3.60 per ounce at $1,660.70.

Precious gold future for December delivery jumped up $1.10, or 0.1%, to $1,658.20 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange during Asian trading hours.

Silver for December delivery increased 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $30.40 per ounce, while palladium for the December delivery climbed 40 cents, or 0.1%, to $616.80 per ounce.

Aug
30

EUR/USD: Fundamental Outlook AUG 30th

The Economic calendar today was one scenario which the authorities did not want to see. If the Euro zone screened weak data from different part the US reported worst reports too and in this all red marks the EUR/USD managed to lose some pips and return to the 1.2500 mark but did not manage to break it and currently is trading just above it. The first disappointment of the day was the GER Unemployment change in August which rose to 9k from a previous of 7k and a market expectation of 8k however the GER Unemployment Rate s.a for August remained at 6.8% same as the expectations of the market and the previous reading. The ITY Wage inflation (YoY) till July remained par at 1.5% but there was a slight improvement in the ITY Wage Inflation (MoM) (Jul) of 0.2% from the previous 0.2%. The Italian reports did however show an improved confidence in the business as the ITY Business Confidence in august improved to 87.2 from 87.1 with a consensus of 86.9. Although the business confidence in the Italy improved the consumer confidence in the euro zone deteriorated, the report EUR Consumer Confidence decreased to -24.6 from -21.5 to a consensus of -23. Other reports included the EUR Business Climate which improved slightly to -1.21 from -1.27. EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator an economic important indicator signified that there was a reduction in the sentiment in the economy of Euro zone to 86.1 from 87.9. However the EUR Industrial Confidence remained par at -15.3. The EUR Service Sentiment in august weakened to-10.8 where as the consensus was -9 and previously -8.5. On the other hand important but weak reports signified a much uglier us economy nowhere near the turn. The badly hit employment reports  signified a still weakening labor industry,  USD Intial Jobless Claims till august 25th rose to 374k from where as markets where expecting a 370k figure, same was the case in USD continuing Jobless Claims in August 3.316M where as the general consensus was 3.307M. USD Personal Spending also shadowed as in July the report was released at 0.4% to a consensus of 0.5%. USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Jul) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Jul) both disappointed markets at 0.0% and 1.6% to a consensus of 0.1% and 1.7% respectably. Along with the Core the USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Jul) and the USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Jul) also showed significant reduction and were reported at 0.0% and 1.3% to a consensus of 0.1% and 1.4% respectably. The USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jul) remained par at 0.3%. Also to be watched is Jackson Hole Symposium a key symposium for the USD and a possible market mover.

 

Written byMaju

Aug
30

USD/CHF D1 Technical August 30

USD/CHF continues its downward movement and has a strong support at 0.9550 and resistance at 0.9595, so we for intraday traders we recommend sell deals as soon as the pair reaches 0.9595.to minimize the risk stop loss should be taken above 0.9630.

Aug
30

USD/CAD D1 Technical August 30

USD/CAD touches the strong support of 0.9843 and bounces back and now trading at 0.9916,now the cable should retrace toward 0.9976 which is 23.6 % of Fibonacci retracement,so we recommend buy deals targeting 0.9976 which if break will send the cable to test the 1.0064 level.

Aug
30

USD/JPY D1 Technical August 30

USD/JPY is trading sideway in a tight range of 78.30-78.90,break of the support will send the cable to test the 77.90 and 77.60 low while on the upside the rate should be limited to 79.05 from which the cable should resume its fall.

Aug
30

AUD/USD D1 Technical August 30

AUD/USD continue its downward movement, yesterday the cable close below the 23.6 % of Fibonacci retracement so the support become the resistance, so we recommend sell deals as soon as the cable reaches the 23.6% at 1.0370 level and take profit should be at 1.0200 them 0.9980.U.S  Unemployment claims should affect the rate of pair.

Aug
30

EUR/USD D1 Technical August 30

EUR/USD  has broken the resistance and manages to close above the resistance and the cable shows bullish reaction as soon as the cable reaches the support at 1.2500,so we recommend buy deals as the cable reaches the support level targeting 1.2590 and 1.2650 which is weekly pivot. Unemployment Claims can affect the rate of pair.

Aug
29

EUR/USD: Fundamental Outlook AUG 29th

The economic calendar held a long list of indicators both from the Euro zone and the US zone. The currency pair reversed its yesterdays uptrend and is trading almost at the 50%level of yesterdays move. From the Euro Zone French Business Climate for August improved from a survey result of 89 to 90 but French Individual Investment in the current year for the second quarter deteriorated from 6% to 5%. The Italian Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Jun) improved to 0.4% from 0.1% where as the Italian Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) (Jun) improved from -1.7% to -0.5%. However the Italian Consumer Confidence (Aug) remained the same at 86. In today’s menu from the Euro zone the most watched and awaited data was the consumer price reports from Germany released today. Indeed the number of reports signified a much improved economic situation than what was anticipated. The German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug) was reported at 0.3% where expectations were 0.2% and the previous was o.4%.  Similarly German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug) was released at 2.0% where as anticipation was 1.8% and previous was 1.7%.  A very important economic data to day was the German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug) which was also reported at 2.2% to a consensus of 2.0% and previous of 1.9%. The Euro Zone signified improved consumer prices proving a recovery of the economy at the second quarter. On the other hand important GDP report from the US was released and US stocks advanced. The US Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index (Q2) and the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2) both were reported at 1.6% and 1.7% unchanged from the consensus respectfully. As the markets still await for speeches from Bernanke and the FED Beige Book the pair is to react very choppy as both the economies prove significant improvement. Dovish or hawkish stance from the feds report could provide a market moving trigger for directions.

 

Written by Maju

Aug
29

USD/JPY D1 Technical August 29

The USD/JPY pair fell during most of the Tuesday session as the pair dug its way back into the supportive area between 78 and 78.75. The pair looks like it’s been supportive at the 78 handle by the Bank of Japan, and has recently been so as the central bank even admitted to doing it. Prelim GDP q/q, Pending Home Sales m/m data can affect the rate of pair.