Browsing all articles tagged with consumer confidence

Gold falls 1.6 Percent Notches Second Sharp Monthly Loss

Precious metal knock down almost 2 percent on Friday following US data showing low inflation and improving consumer confidence dampened investor interest, with gold notching sharp losses for a second consecutive month.

A combination of declining fund interest, option expiration and squaring of books following investors covered short positions also sent open interest in US gold futures to its lowest in approximately four years traders said.

Data showing a six-year high in consumer sentiment weighed on yellow metal a traditional safe haven.

Carlos Perez-Santalla at brokerage Marex Spectron said that the metals were previously under pressure going into the end of the month as many people have a lot of short positions outstanding and the consumer confidence statistics just added fuel to selling.

Spot gold knock down 1.6 percent to $1,390.80 per ounce by 3:17 p.m. EDT (1917 GMT), its largest one-day loss in two weeks.

US Comex gold futures for August delivery settled down $19 at $1,393 per ounce, with trading volume almost 30 percent below its 30-day average.

Yellow metal had gained more than 3 percent in the previous three sessions as discouraging US growth data and jobless claims figures boosted expectations for continued Federal Reserve stimulus.

However for the month of May, precious metal fall 5.8 percent following April’s decline of more than 7 percent. On Thursday, CME data showed Comex gold futures open interest inched up less than 1 percent to 385,901 contracts, hovering near its weakest level since September 2009. The market gauge was 13 percent lower versus 445,517 lots previous Thursday.

Economic optimism and increasing investor interest in better-performing assets such as equities explained decreasing interest in the safe-haven metal.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold backed exchange traded fund, remained unchanged at 1,013.15 tonnes on Thursday, following increasing for the first time in three weeks on Wednesday. However these are still near four-year lows, having lost almost 337 tonnes in 2013 so far.


EUR/USD: Fundamental Outlook AUG 30th

The Economic calendar today was one scenario which the authorities did not want to see. If the Euro zone screened weak data from different part the US reported worst reports too and in this all red marks the EUR/USD managed to lose some pips and return to the 1.2500 mark but did not manage to break it and currently is trading just above it. The first disappointment of the day was the GER Unemployment change in August which rose to 9k from a previous of 7k and a market expectation of 8k however the GER Unemployment Rate s.a for August remained at 6.8% same as the expectations of the market and the previous reading. The ITY Wage inflation (YoY) till July remained par at 1.5% but there was a slight improvement in the ITY Wage Inflation (MoM) (Jul) of 0.2% from the previous 0.2%. The Italian reports did however show an improved confidence in the business as the ITY Business Confidence in august improved to 87.2 from 87.1 with a consensus of 86.9. Although the business confidence in the Italy improved the consumer confidence in the euro zone deteriorated, the report EUR Consumer Confidence decreased to -24.6 from -21.5 to a consensus of -23. Other reports included the EUR Business Climate which improved slightly to -1.21 from -1.27. EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator an economic important indicator signified that there was a reduction in the sentiment in the economy of Euro zone to 86.1 from 87.9. However the EUR Industrial Confidence remained par at -15.3. The EUR Service Sentiment in august weakened to-10.8 where as the consensus was -9 and previously -8.5. On the other hand important but weak reports signified a much uglier us economy nowhere near the turn. The badly hit employment reports  signified a still weakening labor industry,  USD Intial Jobless Claims till august 25th rose to 374k from where as markets where expecting a 370k figure, same was the case in USD continuing Jobless Claims in August 3.316M where as the general consensus was 3.307M. USD Personal Spending also shadowed as in July the report was released at 0.4% to a consensus of 0.5%. USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Jul) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Jul) both disappointed markets at 0.0% and 1.6% to a consensus of 0.1% and 1.7% respectably. Along with the Core the USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Jul) and the USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Jul) also showed significant reduction and were reported at 0.0% and 1.3% to a consensus of 0.1% and 1.4% respectably. The USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jul) remained par at 0.3%. Also to be watched is Jackson Hole Symposium a key symposium for the USD and a possible market mover.


Written byMaju


EUR/USD; All green for the Dollar


The EUR/USD pair erased all its losses yesterday as the markets remained unchanged today. The Asian stocks closed higher as optimism about the FEDs and ECB to announce stimulus soon.  With the US monitory policy decision tomorrow US stocks trimmed its advances. A long list of data released from the states today. Personal Income increased in Jun exceeded expectation to 0.5% from 0.3% where as the market had expected a 0.4% figure. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index a leading indicator for inflation was released today for June at 0.2% which was also market expectation to a previous of 0.1%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Prices Index (YOY) remained unchanged at 1.8%. Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YOY) released by the commerce department also a leading indicator for inflation remained par at 1.5%.Another interesting indicator in today’s list was the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) from May to May was released at -0.7 better than expected at -1.5 but still better than the previous figure of -1.9%. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index was released at 53.7 a significantly better than expected data which was expected at 52.4 but in the midst of all the sweet data for the dollar another trigger in the market news was the Consumer Confidence for July. The consumer confidence also showed a improvement from 62.7 to 65.9 where as expectation was at 61.5. Released by the Conference Board it plays a significant role in the deciding the confidence of consumers which has indeed risen after hopes of getting better employment market in the future.


Written by Maju


GBP/USD D1 Technical July 31

On daily chart GBP/USD has a support and resistance at 1.5660 and 1.5714 and its outlook according to technical indicators is neutral, break of the resistance will give some bullish strength to the pair and the cable should target 1.5901/6 which is 61.8 % of Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 1.6303-1.5268. CB Consumer Confidence can affect the rate of pair.


EUR/USD: Fundamental Outlook July 23rd



The pair started the week lower than the Friday close as the euro zone struggled with weak data and weak investor confidence. Since the Asian session and into the European session the pair faltered down making new lows. The lowest level recorded was 1.2067. The only effective data today was the consumer confidence which dropped to the lowest since August 2009. The release of this data catalyzed the fall and the pair remained low all morning. The consumer confidence data is released by the European commission and is a leading indicator index which measures the confidence of the consumers. The consumer confidence dropped to -21.6 to the previous of -19.8 where as the market had anticipated a better data of -20.0. The low confidence in the region is a reflection of the high unemployment and the worse housing era. With many countries increasing taxes and cutting budgets to cope wit

h the budget deficits the future of the euro zone seems dim.

At the time of writing the pair has retraced its losses and is currently trading near the opening of the week at 1.2137. looking at the week ahead with more disappointments coming in from the European union  the pair could easily slip below the 1.2000 area and touch levels around the 1.1900. We would be looking to short the pair at any rallies targeting these areas for a healthy profit.


Written by Maju