Browsing all articles tagged with Fed
May
25

Gold Fall, however 2.15 percent Weekly Rise Biggest in a Month

Precious metal turned modestly lower on Friday as some players exited positions ahead of a long US weekend however registered its largest weekly percentage gain in a month, supported by a fall in stock markets and a softer US dollar.

Comments from a Federal Reserve official that dampened talk the US central bank is set to restrain monetary stimulus also underpinned yellow metal prices, which stuck to a fairly tight range.

Spot gold was down 0.23 percent at $1,387.51 per ounce by 2:37 EDT (1837 GMT), slightly lower than $1,390.40 late on Thursday. It remained up 2.15 percent on the week, its largest weekly rise since late April.

COMEX June gold futures closed at $1,386.6 per ounce, drop $5.2 or 0.37 percent and held about those levels in after-hours business.

Bullion got a boost this week from declining equity markets, which in Europe on Thursday posted their largest one day drop in nearly a year. On Friday, US stocks knock down for a third day, putting indexes on track for their first negative week since mid-April.

Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Societe Generale Group in London, a weaker greenback combined with continued QE, some physical buying at the lower levels out to China in particular all of those factors have helped precious metal in the last few days.

QE refers to quantitative easing, or the Federal Reserve’s program of buying almost $85 billion per month in debt to keep US interest rates low and stimulate the economy.

The US dollar extended its decline against the yen and was on track for its largest weekly loss in three years against the Japanese currency. The euro climbed 0.7 percent this week against the dollar its first weekly addition in three periods.

During the US session, precious metal ventured into negative regions with some players reluctant to hang onto a long gold position over the extended Memorial Day weekend in the US, given the newest uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy.

Speculation the Fed would scale back its monetary easing program evaluate on yellow metal this week after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated the central bank could start scaling back its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases in the next few meetings.

But, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated on Friday that US inflation would have to pick up before he voted to scale back stimulus.

Bhar said there’s a lot of uncertainty, there’s still no better than 50/50 chance that the Fed will unwind its stimulus or that the economy performs as they expect it will.

May
2

Precious Metal Holds Near 1 week Low, ETFs Outflows Persist

Precious metal held near its weakest level in practically a week on Thursday, following declines in holdings of exchange traded funds, equities and other commodities overshadowed the US Federal Reserve’s decision to uphold its loose monetary policy.

Prices fall $225 per ounce between April 12 and 16 on fears of a withdrawal of the Fed’s monetary stimulus and after the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank asked Cyprus to sell reserves as part of a bailout deal.

While the Fed’s money-printing to buy assets could stoke inflation, yellow metal has been overwhelmed by fears of sales by central banks and a fall in global bullion ETF holdings to their lowest since September 2009.

However this is unlikely to be sold on the open market. I consider another central bank will be buying it. China’s physical demand is still strong. This morning they are perhaps keeping a lookout to see where the market is going before purchasing.

Precious metal fell $3.05 per ounce to $1,453.69, having shed more than 1 percent in the previous session its largest daily drop since gold’s historic decline in mid-April. It smash a low of $1,439.74 on Wednesday, the weakest since April 25.

Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd in Singapore said that people are more wary as yellow metal has been trading within the same trading band. Moreover, Europe has agreed on a loan deal for Cyprus, and one of the terms state that assets in bullion might be sold.

US gold for June delivery stood at $1,453.70 per ounce, climbed up $7.50.

In its statement subsequent a two-day meeting, the Fed reiterated it would carry on to buy $85 billion worth of bonds each month to support a moderately expanding economy that still has too high an unemployment rate.

Investors are now waiting for US non-farm payrolls report for April scheduled for release on Friday, which will signal the longer term predictions for the Fed’s monetary stimulus.

However instead of rallying on the news, yellow metal tracked other markets lower on renewed doubts over the Chinese and US economies following the latest economic data from both countries elevated doubts about the strength of the global economy.

The US economy is likely to have added 145,000 jobs.

March’s number chop down far short of expectations at 88,000, triggering a sell-off in riskier assets. Precious metal for June delivery added $9.70, or 0.7%, to $1,456 per ounce.

China’s factory sector growth eased in April as new export orders chop down for the first time this year, a private survey showed on Thursday, suggesting the euro zone slump and sluggish US demand may be risks to China’s economic recovery.

May
1

Yellow Metal Edges Down, Investors Cautious Ahead of Fed

Yellow metal ticked lower on Wednesday on a shortage of physical buying and as investors waited to see if the US Federal Reserve sticks to its stimulus programme to spur the economy, which may lift the metal’s appeal as a hedge against inflation.

Doubts that central banks money printing to buy assets will stoke inflation have been a key driver in boosting precious metal, which rallied to an 11-month high previous October following the Fed announced its third round of aggressive economic stimulus.

The Fed’s policy making committee ends its conference later in the day with a statement that could reflect recent weak economic statistics. Investors also await Friday’s non-farm payrolls data which will signal the longer term predictions for the Fed’s monetary stimulus.

Edward Meir, a metals analyst at futures brokerage INTL FCStone said that accommodative policies are generally seen as supportive for bullion, however as the events of the last few weeks have demonstrated, gold does not always move in lockstep with simple expansion in money supply.

In its place, it seems to pick up steam either as a result of disorder in the financial markets or on the back of higher inflation readings, neither of which seem to be dominant at this particular time.

Gold dropped $1.89 per ounce to $1,474.71 by 0602 GMT, with the market torn between expectations that the Fed will keep its current policy and daily outflows from exchange traded funds, as investors cut their exposure.

US gold futures for June delivery stood at $1,474.20 per ounce added $2.10.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings dropped 0.19 percent to 1078.54 tonnes on Tuesday, their lowest since September 2009.

However gold has recovered more than half of its $225 loss incurred among April 12 and 16, boosted by strong physical demand, especially in top gold consumers China and India.

The longer term trend has been broken to the downside. This fact is important as in a downtrend the default move of a price is lower in the absence of convincing fundamentals. With fundamentals only neutral, we think certain risk still persists.

Credit Suisse in a report said that with investment flows negative however monetary policy supportive, we consider a neutral fundamental rating is the most appropriate one. In contrast to neutral fundamentals, technical indicators are clearly negative.

Singapore and Hong Kong were closed for a holiday. A rush in buying of gold bars following the recent plunge in prices has led to tight physical supply in Asia.

In other markets, the US dollar eased on Wednesday as investors warily awaited the result of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, although expectations the European Central Bank will cut interest rates on Thursday capped the euro.

Apr
30

Precious metal Down 1 percent; ETF holdings hit lowest Since Sept 2009

Precious metal fell 1 percent on Tuesday, falling into negative territory following some early bargain hunting, however daily outflows from exchange traded funds highlighted investor’s lack of confidence in the gold.

Tim Riddell, head of ANZ Global Markets Research, Asia said that from a technical point of view, while the rebound has been relatively solid it appears to be a more sustained correction of the drop that we saw from late March rather than a turn in trend.

Although yellow metal’s appeal as a hedge against inflation may be burnished by hopes the US Federal Reserve will continue its bond buying programme, flowing stock markets could tempt investors to ditch gold and shift to equities.

Actually what we need to see is a series of closes above $1,505 to take the pressure off, he added that a fall below $1,435 could trigger a favored technical pullback to $1,300 and potentially even as deep as $1,245.

US gold for June delivery gave up early increases and stood at $1,461.10, down $6.30.

US gold futures and Cash dropped to almost $1,321 on April 16, their lowest in more than two years, after a fall below $1,500 led to a sell-off which stunned investors, and encouraged them to slash holdings of exchange-traded funds.

Precious metal fell $14.18 per ounce to $1,461.61 by 0617 GMT.  It had increased slightly on Monday on expectations the Fed would keep the pace of its bond buying unchanged at $85 billion a month following less than expected US growth.

The SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings dropped 0.22 percent to 1,080.64 tonnes on Monday from 1,083.05 tonnes on Friday to their lowest since September 2009.

A weak March employment report in the US and other softer signals from the economy seemed to kill off expectations the Fed could taper the pace of bond buying in next months.

Asian shares edged higher on Tuesday, a day after the S&P 500 index ended at an all-time high and as investor risk appetite was bolstered by expectations the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve the will continue with growth supportive monetary stimulus measures.

The Fed is currently buying longer dated US Treasuries and mortgage backed bonds every month and is expected to vote to keep doing so at the conclusion of a two day policy setting meeting on Wednesday.

Fears that central banks money printing to buy assets will stoke inflation have been a key driver in enhancing gold, which rallied to an 11-month high in October last year subsequently the Fed announced its third round of aggressive economic stimulus.

Apr
29

Precious Gold Rises 1 percent, Holds near One Week High

Yellow metal rose more than 1 percent on Monday and held near its highest level in more than a week as a bounce back in prices from multi-year lows failed to control investor appetite for the gold’s, leading to a shortage in physical supply.

Current bleak US growth statistics that raised expectations the Federal Reserve will keep its current pace of bond buying at $85 billion a month also supported precious metal that is typically seen as a hedge against inflation.

However investors are still roiled by the very recent event of the tumble. The question is how supportable is this physical buying as at the same time, we are still seeing funds flowing out of yellow metal. Retail investors won’t be buying bullion in hundreds of millions of dollars like the funds.

Both cash gold and futures dropped to around $1,321 on April 16, their weakest in over two years, subsequently drop below $1,500 sparked a sell-off that encouraged investors to slash their holdings on exchange traded funds. They touched an 11 day high above $1,484 on Friday.

I don’t consider gold is out of the woods yet, however there’s room for upward correction. One of the reasons why precious metal has plunged so much was the strong signs of US economic recovery.

US gold futures which often give trading cues to cash metal, hit a high of $1,472.20 per ounce. By 0226 GMT, prices stood at $1,469.60 climbed $16.00. Spot gold gain $7.51 per ounce to $1,470.01.

Premiums for gold bars have jumped to multi-year highs in Asia as of strong demand from the physical market, which has led to a shortage in gold coins, bars, nuggets and other products.

In other markets, shares in Asia crept ahead on Monday however the US dollar lost ground to the yen as markets braced for a busy week for economic statistics and central bank policy meetings in the United States and euro zone.

Holdings on the biggest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund ETF, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust continue to drop, which was a sign investors have yet to reinstate their confidence in gold. The holdings are currently at their lowest since September 2009.

The current string of underwhelming statistics will strengthen the hand of the doves at the Fed and temper any talk of tapering back the bond buying programme. The policy setting Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision at 1815 GMT on Wednesday.

Report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday that yellow metal rallied to an 11-month high in October previous year after the Fed announced its third round of aggressive economic stimulus, raising fears the central bank’s money printing to buy assets would stoke inflation, money managers and Hedge funds trimmed their net longs in gold futures and options in the week to April 23 as investors reduced optimistic bets.

 

Apr
22

Precious Gold Ralled More Than 2 Percent on Technical Buying

Precious metal jumped more than 2 percent on Monday following a rebound over $1,400 ignited technical buying, however sentiment was wobbly as steady outflows from exchange traded funds trimmed their gold holdings to the lowest in three years.

Edward Meir, metals analyst at futures brokerage INTL FCStone said that it remains to be seen which of these offsetting forces ultimately wins out and exerts its influence over yellow metal prices.

The technical stance for gold, which has sink more than 15 percent so far this year, is yet to recover although the safe haven asset could find support from a rush in physical buying in Asia and other parts of the world.

Our guess is that the sharp bounce in retail buying will probably dominate and succeed in sending prices higher over the course of the coming week or two.

It posted its largest ever daily loss in US dollar terms previous Monday, shocking veteran investors who see bullion as portfolio protection against inflation and other market risks. Prices sank to almost $1,321 on April 16, its weakest in more than 2 years.

Spot gold added $16.21 per ounce to $1,420.06 by 0631 GMT following increasing as high as $1,427.20 per ounce.

Tim Riddell, head of ANZ Global Markets Research, Asia  said that the aggressiveness of the drop suggests that we are still in a consolidation rather in a reversal role. For me the $1,435 level is likely to provide resistance.

We actually need to get back into the $1,500s to say that there’s something more substantial taking place. The close over $1,400 may have taken the negative pressure out of percious metal in the near term. A close below that level will heighten the risks of new lows

Outflows on exchange traded funds could also point out that investors were parking their money somewhere else, although previous week’s trading statistics from the Unites States demonstrate that funds had injected new money into gold futures.

Gold had rallied to an 11-month high in October previous year following the Fed announced its third round of aggressive economic stimulus, lifting fears the central bank’s money printing to buy assets would stoke inflation.

Hedge funds and money managers elevated their net longs in gold futures and options in the week to April 16, a report by Commodity Futures Trading Commission known as CFTC showed on Friday, because new money entered the market at lower prices.

 

US gold futures, which frequently dictate the spot market, strike a high of 1,427.3 per ounce climbed 2.3 percent from the previous close of 1,395.60 per ounce. The June delivery later stood at $1,419.80 added $24.20.

Apr
10

Gold Added on Japan Policy, Firm Equities May Weigh

Gold climbed up on Wednesday because Japan’s aggressive monetary easing policy enhanced bullion’s appeal as a hedge against inflation, while gains may be capped as stronger equities lure buyers seeking superior returns.

Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd said that what the Fed really releases in the minutes tonight will influence the direction of gold. Yellow metal needs to test $1,600 before we see it trading in a higher band. If it does not there might still be a downside risk.

Investors are shifting their focus to minutes from the previous US Federal Reserve monetary policy conference for insight on the Fed’s bullion friendly bond buying programme, which sent prices to an 11 month high in October previous year.

It has fall about 5 percent so far this year, following posting annual additions in the past 12 years.

Investors will be looking out for any reveal of quantitative easing. The decision on whether the Fed will continue to print money, limit the print or slowly ease it out will definitely drive gold’s prices.

Precious metal had gained $2.14 per ounce to $1,586.84 by 0610 GMT, following hitting $1,590 on Tuesday, its highest since April 2.

Gold futures on Tokyo Commodity Exchange moved towards a ever high at 5,081 per ounce yen a gram strike in February as of a weak yen, however the climb in TOCOM failed to spur more additions in cash gold.

The addition in Tokyo gold futures weighed on yellow metal bars offered to investors. Precious metal were at discounts of 75 cents to spot London prices in Tokyo, against premiums of 50 cents previous week.

South Korea said it has invite China, North Korea’s only major supporter, to restraint the hermit state and has raised its surveillance following the North moved at least one long-range missile in readiness for a possible launch.

Gold future for June delivery were losing 90 cents, or 0.1%, in Asian trading hours to $1,585.80 per ounce. US gold for June delivery were stable at $1,587.00 per ounce.

Apr
6

Gold Rallies as Weak US jobs Statistics Affirms Federal Reserve Easing

Precious metal rallied over 1.5 percent on Friday, its highest one day addition since November, because disappointing US job statistics fueled expectations the Fed will carry on its bullion friendly bond purchases.

The metal break it’s three consecutive days of sharp losses following the Labor Department stated US employers in March hired at the slowest rate in nine months, adding just 88,000 non-farm posts. Heavy bullion short covering and quick losses in US equities also lifted gold prices.

Yellow metal is used by many as a hedge against inflation which can be brought on by central banks monetary stimulus. Gold still lost over 1 percent for the week for one of its sharpest weekly turn down since the start of the year.

The weak jobs statistics condensed the chance the Fed would change its current $85 billion monthly purchases of mortgage backed Treasuries and securities known as qualitative easing in a bid to enhanced economic growth.

Bill O’Neill, partner of commodities investment firm LOGIC Advisors said that the payrolls report gives more credibility to the idea that they are not going to see any reduction in QE3. It’s just a knee-jerk response and he don’t think it necessarily indicates that the market has bottomed out here.

Heavy outflows from precious metal’s exchange traded funds and sharp losses of prominent gold bull John Paulson’s precious metal fund also weighed on investor sentiment.

Bullion accelerated additions throughout the session on the payrolls statistics and was climbed 1.7 percent at $1,579.60 per ounce (1854 GMT), having earlier strike a high at $1,580.80 per ounce.

Trading volume, however was relatively feeble given the sharp rally. Turnover was at about 200,000 lots, in line with its 30 day average.

Yellow metal’s response to the payrolls report was principally strong as previous advances in the labor market had fueled discussion within the US central bank regarding whether to cut back the third round of bond purchases, possibly as soon as this summer.

Gold futures closed more than $20 per ounce higher on Friday, paring their loss for the week because a disappointing US jobs report pressured the US dollar and contributed to a slip in the stock market.

Gold future for June delivery climbed $23.50 or 1.5%, to settle at $1,575.90 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Apr
4

Gold About 9 Month Weakest, Investors Leave Risky Assets

Precious gold slumped for a third straight session on Thursday, holding near a nine month low strike during the last session, following a steep decline in equities and disappointing US private sector job description prompted investors to cash in gold to cover losses.

Markets are now eyeing the key monthly US nonfarm payrolls statement on Friday that will possibly confirm outlook that the Federal Reserve will keep its extremely accommodative monetary policy.

US companies hired at the lowest pace in five months in March as recent strong demand for construction jobs fade, as growth in the huge services sector slowed, signs that the economic upturn could be hitting a soft patch.

Joyce Liu, an investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore said that the environment for bullion is pretty bearish now. He think if yellow metal tests the lower trend channel it has the potential to fall to $1,530 level.

As for North Korea he think investors are considering the threats more like a joke. They are not reacting because if North Korea is really going to launch a nuclear loaded missile. Funds are moving out of precious metal as there’s less need for safe haven.

The US state on Wednesday it would soon send a missile defense system to Guam to defend it from North Korea, because the US military adjusts to what Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has called a real and clear threat from Pyongyang.

Yellow metal lost $3.66 per ounce to $1,553.69 by 0041 GMT following declining to $1,549.69 on Wednesday its lowest level since June. Gold a traditional safe haven that climbed more than a percent previous month, also failed to respond to growing geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula. US gold future for June delivery was stable at $1,554.00 per ounce.

Doubts that central banks’ money printing to buy assets will stoke inflation have been a key driver in enhanceing yellow metal, which rallied to an 11 month high in october previous year following the Fed announced its third round of aggressive economic stimulus. Bullion price is in our observation, in bubble territory.

Gold future for June delivery knock down $22.40 per ounce or 1.4%, to settle at $1,553.50 per ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Mar
28

Federal Reserve Doves In No Rush To Scale Back Asset Purchases

Primary supporters of the Fed’s bond buying program are not rushing to scale back the swiftness of purchases as the job market improves.

Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank and a leading architect of the Fed’s specially loose policy, advice a go-slow approach to making any alteration to the $85 billion per month purchases of mortgage and Treasury’s backed securities.

Charles Evans further said that he assumed this is the summit where we have to be patient and let our policies work.

He further said that he prefer and suppose it is best that we carry on to provide strong confidence that we are going to be doing appropriate accommodative policies to get the economy going another time.

Fed will have to have assured that the economy was on solid footing in the second half of the year prior to changing policy. That could simply mean that we require to work our way through the second half prior to we have sufficient confidence that growth is strong enough.

Some other Fed officials are excited for the Fed to diminish the asset purchases. A few believe the Fed should start narrowing as soon as possible.

The Fed is currently buying $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion in long-term Treasury’s per month. Following a two day conference previous week, Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman said that the Fed wanted to be convinced that current improvement in the labor market was sustainable prior to imitating the purchases.

William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed said that he expected the fed would ultimately scale back the speed of the purchases.

Although Evans argued that the asset purchases were helping the economy. He can not perceive that those are the bound for doing less.  He want to be really careful regarding the signal that reducing bond buying would be.

Evans stated that he was open-minded and a couple of months of job growth above 300,000 would get his concentration and in February, 236,000 jobs were created.