Browsing all articles tagged with Robin Bhar
May
25

Gold Fall, however 2.15 percent Weekly Rise Biggest in a Month

Precious metal turned modestly lower on Friday as some players exited positions ahead of a long US weekend however registered its largest weekly percentage gain in a month, supported by a fall in stock markets and a softer US dollar.

Comments from a Federal Reserve official that dampened talk the US central bank is set to restrain monetary stimulus also underpinned yellow metal prices, which stuck to a fairly tight range.

Spot gold was down 0.23 percent at $1,387.51 per ounce by 2:37 EDT (1837 GMT), slightly lower than $1,390.40 late on Thursday. It remained up 2.15 percent on the week, its largest weekly rise since late April.

COMEX June gold futures closed at $1,386.6 per ounce, drop $5.2 or 0.37 percent and held about those levels in after-hours business.

Bullion got a boost this week from declining equity markets, which in Europe on Thursday posted their largest one day drop in nearly a year. On Friday, US stocks knock down for a third day, putting indexes on track for their first negative week since mid-April.

Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Societe Generale Group in London, a weaker greenback combined with continued QE, some physical buying at the lower levels out to China in particular all of those factors have helped precious metal in the last few days.

QE refers to quantitative easing, or the Federal Reserve’s program of buying almost $85 billion per month in debt to keep US interest rates low and stimulate the economy.

The US dollar extended its decline against the yen and was on track for its largest weekly loss in three years against the Japanese currency. The euro climbed 0.7 percent this week against the dollar its first weekly addition in three periods.

During the US session, precious metal ventured into negative regions with some players reluctant to hang onto a long gold position over the extended Memorial Day weekend in the US, given the newest uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy.

Speculation the Fed would scale back its monetary easing program evaluate on yellow metal this week after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated the central bank could start scaling back its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases in the next few meetings.

But, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated on Friday that US inflation would have to pick up before he voted to scale back stimulus.

Bhar said there’s a lot of uncertainty, there’s still no better than 50/50 chance that the Fed will unwind its stimulus or that the economy performs as they expect it will.

Apr
27

Gold down Still Posts Greatest Weekly Addition in 3 Months

Bullion knock down in choppy trade on Friday on as investors took profits, however the market still posted its greatest weekly gain in three months on strong physical demand following bullion hit a two year low previous week.

In untimely trade gold climbed more than 1 percent following the US Commerce Department reported that economic growth regained speed in the first quarter, however not as much as expected. Gold gave back those early additions and slipped into negative territory as options related selling kicked in, and losses in industrial commodities including copper and crude oil also weighed.

Gold has recovered more than half of the loss of $225 an ounce incurred among April 12 and 16.

Investors in exchange traded funds headed for the exits concerned regarding potential central bank sales of gold and uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary stimulus.

Erica Rannestad, precious metals analyst at the CPM Group said that there is still some long liquidation in the market, signifying that some investors are still repositioning themselves and that leaves the price susceptible to some sideways actions.

Spot gold was down 0.6 percent at $1,457.76 per ounce by 3:28 p.m. EDT (1928 GMT), off the session high of $1,484.80.

US gold futures for June delivery settled down $8.40 at $1,484.80 per ounce. Trading volume was almost 10 percent above its 30-day average.

Robin Bhar, Societe General Analyst said that GDP is encouraging for precious metal as the whole sell off in the yellow metal was linked to perceptions that the US economy was getting stronger and stronger.

US first quarter growth expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate, less then economists expectations for 3 percent. In the meantime, a separate report on consumer sentiment demonstrates a drop from the previous month.

Silver also climbed early, striking a 10 day high of $24.82. Then it slipped down 1.7 percent in late trade to $23.91 per ounce.

Holdings of the biggest gold backed exchange traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust dropped 0.25 percent to 1,090.27 tonnes on Thursday from 1,092.98 on Wednesday. Holdings are at their weakest level since September 2009.

Among platinum group metals, platinum added 0.4 percent to $1,472.49 per ounce, as palladium was down 0.4 percent at $677.25 per ounce.

Apr
13

Gold Drop into bear market on institutional Migration

Yellow metal sank more than 5 percent on Friday, entering bear market territory as institutional investors fled gold in favor of other safe-haven assets amid concerns regarding central bank sales and souring sentiment.

The span of the sell off will underscore some expectations that gold’s meteoric rally may end following 12 years of gains.

Robin Bhar, Societe General analyst stated the scale of the turn down has been absolutely breathtaking, they tried to rally and that just did not get anywhere, there has not been any downside support it’s like a knife through butter.

Selling became heavy following an unexpected contraction in US retail sales statistics, which hurt stocks and supported the US dollar. It increased to pressures that were building this week from numerous factors, including a draft plan for Cyprus to sell gold and outflows from exchange traded yellow metal funds.

The precious metal slide below $1,500 per ounce for the first time since July, 2011. Yellow metal posted its largest weekly decline since December, 2011.

The speed of the sell-off appeared tied to instability in the price of Japanese government bonds, which has forced certain holders to sell other assets to meet the risk modeling of their investment portfolios.

The spot price of gold strike a low of $1,476 per ounce, down 5.3 percent on the day. For the week, it showed a turn down of more than 6 percent, in its largest weekly drop since December 2011, bonds rallied on Friday.

Geoffrey Fila, associate portfolio manager at Galtere Ltd, commodities focused hedge fund in New York with almost $600 million under management. Could it retest $1,300 or $1,200 on a short term technical basis? Absolutely yes.

Losses in precious metal accelerated and trading volumes ballooned following prices fell through key support at $1,521 per ounce. The market is down some 23 percent below a record peak of $1,920.30 strike in September 2011. Investors define a bear market as a turn down of 20 percent or more from a market high.

US gold futures also strike their lowest since July 2011, with metal for June delivery declining to as low as $1,476 per ounce by 5:20 p.m. EDT (2150 GMT). It settled at $1,501.40, losing 4.1 percent.